Best time to go; Travel budget; Where to travel? More modest chances for drier conditions are forecast in southern Alaska, and from California across the Rockies, Central Plains, and into the Southeast. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. Based on climate analysis (3) from this new snow dataset, we see that La Niña favors increased snowfall over the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as in the upper Midwest Great Lakes region. You should join for your chance to be featured and to discover why there’s nothing better than Arkansas’ stunning nature. (2012) and Allen et al. Stay out of the muck and curl up by the fire instead at one of Arkansas' cabins in the woods. Splitting La Niña events into strength reveals some interesting differences worth investigating further. Aug 19, 2020. These shifts would also be expected to impact thunderstorm activity: El Niño tends to shift the jet stream farther south over the U.S., which blocks moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms. Arkansas weather in December 2020. The retreat of the jet stream results in more blocking high pressure systems that allow colder air to spill into western and central Canada and parts of the northern contiguous U.S. At the same time, storm track activity across the southern tier of the U.S. is diminished under upper-level high pressure, which also favors milder-than-normal temperatures. Here is the day by day recorded weather in Arkansas in january 2020: 01-01-2020 34°F to 50°F. The jet stream shifts toward the equator under these conditions, so the globe-encircling river of air is south of its average position. The graduate of University of Arkansas - Fort Smith, Carol Ann earned her B.A. Add in the mild weather and you have the perfect winter hiking! Schools Current Hazards. And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. National Weather Service AccuWeather just released its annual weather forecast for winter 2020-2021 and experts are predicting that an "overall mild winter is possible" for much of the United States. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released weather maps that attempt to forecast weather for the 2020 – 2021 winter. Seasonal (May-July) averages of Gulf of Mexico SST can be predicted with some skill (Jung and Kirtman, 2016). Over the past 15 years, there has not been a trend for either warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal winter temperatures in our area. In general, the stronger the La Niña, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. Overall, La Nina conditions are associated with enhanced U.S. tornado activity, but more detailed aspects of ENSO may also be relevant (Lee et al., 2012). The coldest air of the season plunged into … During La Niña winters, cooler-than-normal temperatures are typically found across western and central Canada, Japan, eastern China, southern Brazil, parts of western and southern Africa, and Madagascar. An animation illustrating the organization of the MJO into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event during the spring of 2005. This does not necessarily imply that this winter will end up being snowier-than-normal. Posted: Dec 1, 2020 / 09:00 PM CST / Updated: Dec 1, 2020 / 09:07 PM CST. But there are some general themes in regard to snowfall in a La Niña winter, according to research by Dr. Stephen Baxter, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, published in 2017. Temperatures tend to be colder than average across the northern Plains and warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States. J. Atmos. Please Contact Us. The more vigorous storm track and slight tilt toward colder temperatures over the northern tier of U.S. during La Niña modestly increases the chance of a relatively snowy winter. Figure 2. So, unlike ENSO, which is stationary, the MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. The longest La Niña lasted 33 months. Locally, wetter-than-normal is slightly favored in southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin. Please try another search. The series of maps to the right shows temperature patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter season—December through February—since 1950 that coincided with La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Niña winters dating back to 1950. Note eastward shifting of shaded areas with each successive numbered phase as you view the figure from top to bottom. You’ll Be Pleased To Hear That Arkansas’ Upcoming Winter Is Supposed To Be As Mild As Last Year’s. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. While there was a strong signal for colder-than-normal temperatures during La Niña winters prior to 1985, this climate signal has become far less reliable. Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian Oscillation. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, abnormal height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia. (2015b) for more details. Canadian Winter Weather Forecast 2020-2021. Instead of only looking at individual weather events, it’s important to consider the environmental cues for the outbreak of severe weather. Forecast; Almanac; Arkansas Storm Chasers; Closings and Delays; Alerts; Your Weather Photos; Weather Headlines; Weather Knowledge; Sports. where snowfall is greater than average and brown shows where snowfall is less than average. J. Wind Chill Climate Given the northward shift of the storm track, relatively cold and wet conditions are favored over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, resulting in the enhancement of snowfall. We’re aware that these uncertain times are limiting many aspects of life. Imagine ENSO as a person riding a stationary exercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. … The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. An animated illustration that depicts the global scale and eastward propagation of these two phases of the MJO is shown here (Fig. As 2020 comes to a close, temperatures may be a bit colder than average compared to October and November. The weather in Arkansas in the month of december comes from statistical datas on the past years. In other words, they are the boundaries between the lower and middle thirds of the distribution, and between the middle and upper thirds. Figure3: The surface and upper-atmosphere structure of the MJO for a period when the enhanced convective phase (thunderstorm cloud) is centered across the Indian Ocean and the suppressed convective phase is centered over the west-central Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature pattern showing the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (top). Horizontal arrows pointing left represent wind departures from average that are easterly, and arrows pointing right represent wind departures from average that are westerly. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Niña events. Boaters temperature and precipitation over the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, While this La Niña is expected to be moderate to strong, these winters can be highly variable. Or, what we like to call it in Arkansas, second summer. This is the part of the forecast which is the most uncertain. Arctic Oscillation) may be at play and is worth further investigation. Drought is also present in parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Hawaii, and Alaska. Atmospheric angular momentum is related to ENSO and also shows the impact of tropical forcing on tornado activity (Gensini and Marinaro, 2016). Climate, 22, 4097-4116. Madden R. and P. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. This was based upon both La Niña and recent trends over the past decade. AO phases are analogous to the Southern Hemisphere's Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), a similar pattern of air pressure and jet stream anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. Positive values indicate increased activity, and negative values indicate decreased activity compared to the long-term average (1979-2015). Our white winters are few and far between, so unfortunately this year will not be one of them. The Almanac predicts “a light winter for most of us here in the United States, with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the forecast for a large part of the country.”. Toggle navigation. Or, what we like to call it in Arkansas, second summer. December 2020 Long Range Weather Forecast for Deep South; Dates Weather Conditions; Dec 1-3: Showers, cold: Dec 4-7: Sunny, warm: Dec 8-17: Rain, then sunny, cold: Dec 18-26: Rainy periods, turning mild: Dec 27-31: Rainy periods, wet snow north; chilly: December: temperature 47° (1° above avg. Riddle, E. E., M. B. Stoner, N. C. Johnson, M. L. L’Heureux, D. C. Collins, and S. B. Feldstein, 2013: The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. The MJO can produce impacts similar to those of ENSO, but which appear only in weekly averages before changing, rather than persisting and therefore appearing in seasonal averages as is the case for ENSO. A clearer picture of the impact of ENSO emerges when we look at the ingredients that are conducive to tornado and thunderstorm occurrence (Allen et al., 2015a). For example, 8 of the 11 strong and moderate events show the cool conditions in the Northern Great Plains, which is most winters, but not all. While precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are favored, La Niña is not the only player. Dispatch / Law Enforcement The outlook weather maps show both temperature predictions as well as precipitation predictions.. Life. Rainfall increases over Indonesia (where waters remain warm) and decreases over the central tropical Pacific (which is cool). US Dept of Commerce Nature. Follow Us On Social Media, Weather Safety Educational Resources SnowChance calculates the likelihood of a Winter Storm entering a region on a specific day. Wallace, 2001: Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions. However, no two La Niña winters will have identical precipitation patterns. Rivers - Quick Look, Cold These historical relationships along with guidance provided by a suite of computer models plays a strong role in the final outlooks. The trend is an important component of seasonal temperature forecasts. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather can also play a large part in how a winter turns out. 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